Forecasting the economy

Forecasting the economy of Panama in the years 2009 and 2010 (Updated 23 December 2009) The performance of the Panamanian economy in the first three quarters of 2009, measured by gross domestic product showed an increase of 2.1 , compared to similar period last year. In mid-December 2009, the Comptroller General of the Republic of Panam public the evolution of economic indicators to October this year, showing a decrease of key economic activities of Panama, whose demand comes from abroad. The indicators revealed contraction of the Panama Canal, ports, the Colon Free Zone, banking, residential building permits, production of ready mixed concrete and even tourism and movement of passengers. It was expected that the international financial crisis affecting the external sector of the economy of Panama, since it is one of the most globalized in the region.Moreover, the local website Insight Panama Economy, in its monthly report “Economic Outlook of Panama, published on 6 January 2010, estimated that Panama’s economy may grow by 1.6 in 2009 and only grow 2.3 in 2010, after growing 12.1 and 10.7 in the years 2007 and 2008. However, for the following years Panama Economy Insight sees a hopeful future, predicts that Panama’s economy will recover quickly after this abrupt halt, with growth of 9.4 and 8.6 in 2011 and 2012 respectively, driven in part by the Panama Canal expansion and recovery of the economy of the United States and Latin American countries. Moreover, The Economist now predicts for 2009 a growth of 2.3 , after shrinking 1.3 UNCA predicted at the beginning of the year. Morgantiene JP positive forecast but still quite low, this being just 1.5 .The International Monetary Fund, undesirable, Deloitte and Standard Poor have a positive and moderate forecast of 3 , 1.8 , 3.5 and 3.5 respectively. The Economic Commission for Latin America remained very optimistic that Panama predic a grow 4 , but on July 15 cut its forecast to 2.5 . The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) has announced repeatedly that its economic growth forecast this year is 3 . The MEF prepared the budget for 2010 based on the assumption that the economy will grow at 3.5 . ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS OF PANAMA IN THE YEARS 2009, 2010 AND 2011 ( annual change in gross domestic product at constant prices) Updated 23 December 2009.

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